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      lex: "- Region: Iberian peninsula (the three synthesised chains all use Iberian Bombus only).\n- Species set: Bombus species observed in GBIF on the Iberian peninsula in 1901\342\200\2232014 (31 species in the joint analysis).\n- Climate forcing for fit: CRU TS 3.24.01 monthly temperature and precipitation, identical to Soroye et al. 2020 (Figshare deposit).\n- Climate forcing for projection: DestinE Climate DT SSP3-7.0, IFS-NEMO standard, native HEALPix nside=128. Horizons 2020\342\200\2232029 and 2030\342\200\2232039 only (DestinE archive populated through 2039 at time of analysis).\n- Spatial substrates analysed: CEA (~100 km), HEALPix-NESTED nside=64 (~92 km), HEALPix-NESTED nside=128 (~46 km) on the WGS84 ellipsoid.\n- GLMM specification: Soroye et al. 2020\'s full formula with main effects + four predictor interaction terms + per-species random intercept.\n- Inference: full-posterior NUTS via bambi/PyMC; HDIs reported.\n- This synthesis covers BOTH the fit-time substrate-robustness AND the projection-time grid-coupling \342\200\224 these are the two complementary aspects of the same three-chain constellation."
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      lex: "1. When replicating Soroye-style TEI extirpation models, expect substrate-robust headline coefficients within \302\26130% across factor-of-2 HEALPix resolution changes \342\200\224 substrate sensitivity at FIT time is small. Cite multiple substrates jointly when claiming substrate-robustness; a single substrate is not sufficient evidence.\n\n2. When projecting to future climate, ALWAYS filter per-species reporting to species with at least 10 occupied + active cells per substrate. Below this, per-species ranking is grid-coupled and not interpretable.\n\n3. At projection time, drop the GLMM interaction terms from the linear predictor used for extrapolation. Keep them in the FIT (they are part of Soroye\'s specification) but use main-effects-only \316\267 to project. This single change lifts cross-substrate Spearman \317\201 from +0.59 (full GLMM) to +0.97 at n \342\211\245 10.\n\n4. Cross-check ANY GLMM-based ranking against the substrate-invariant physical metric \"mean future TEI per species\" or \"fraction of cells with TEI_future > 0.5\". If the GLMM main-effects ranking and the physical ranking disagree for a given species, the GLMM is unreliable for that species at that substrate.\n\n5. CiTO encoding: cito:confirms for the fit-time substrate-robustness; cito:qualifies for projection-time use without the recommended protocol; cito:extends to this diagnostic when reporting projection results at a new substrate pair.\n\n6. The recommended protocol is empirically calibrated against HEALPix nside=64 vs nside=128 for Iberian Bombus on DestinE Climate DT SSP3-7.0. Different taxon/region/forcing combinations may require different thresholds; the protocol is a recommendation, not a hard constraint."
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