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Attribution and disentanglement of the effects of global greenhouse gas and land-use changes on temperature extremes in urban areas is a complex and critical issue in the context of regional-to-local climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here, an innovative modelling framework based on a large ensemble of urban climate simulations, using SURFEX (a land-surface model) coupled to TEB (an urban canopy model), forced by E20C (a GCM-based reanalysis), is proposed, and applied to the capital of Portugal—Lisbon. This approach allowed to disentangle the main drivers of change of extreme temperatures in Lisbon, while also improving the simulated summer temperature variability compared to E20C, using station observations as reference. The improvements were physically linked to the strong sensitivity of summer mean and extreme temperatures to local land-use properties. The sensitivity was systematically investigated and robustly demonstrated here, with built-fraction (buildings + roads), albedo and emissivity emerging as key surface parameters. The results revealed a very strong summer temperature increase between 1951–1980 and 1981–2010 periods: 0.90 °C for daily maximum temperature (T
max), and 0.76 °C for daily minimum temperature (T
max). These changes were sensitive to considering different (but constant throughout the simulation) land-uses, varying by about 10% for T
max, and around 17% for T
min. Regarding the temperature extremes (quantified by extreme hot days, EHD, and extreme hot nights, EHN, respectively defined as exceeding the 95th-percentile of T
max and T
min) the changes and their dependencies with the land-use are much more drastic. The isolated effect of changing land-use (keeping the climate forcing unchanged) from rural/natural (low built-fraction) towards dense urbanization (high built-fraction) caused a significant increase in EHN (up to ∼+130 d per 30 years, larger than the effect due to climate forcing alone), and in EHD (∼+60 d per 30 years, which is similar to the effect due to climate forcing alone).
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max), and 0.76 °C for daily minimum temperature (T
max). These changes were sensitive to considering different (but constant throughout the simulation) land-uses, varying by about 10% for T
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
13.960113960113961
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/512bfc67-52a5-43a1-a913-e09e5042d2f4
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
4.9
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/530ec135-292c-46e0-a415-24cda89f6617
http://schema.org/name
disentanglement of the effect
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/530ec135-292c-46e0-a415-24cda89f6617
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Phrase
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/530ec135-292c-46e0-a415-24cda89f6617
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
21.505376344086024
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/530ec135-292c-46e0-a415-24cda89f6617
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
6.0
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/605ff6f5-3000-477c-9b3d-025df87ae23a
http://schema.org/name
Weather
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/605ff6f5-3000-477c-9b3d-025df87ae23a
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#IPTC
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/605ff6f5-3000-477c-9b3d-025df87ae23a
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#path
Weather
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/6c7d2180-2868-46f2-ab59-a69c3bab576c
http://schema.org/name
Geosciences (General)
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#NASA
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/70c4c56b-fd0a-4886-9b03-81473ab85a56
http://schema.org/name
physics
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/70c4c56b-fd0a-4886-9b03-81473ab85a56
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/contentdesc#Domain
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/70c4c56b-fd0a-4886-9b03-81473ab85a56
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
30.573248407643312
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
4.8
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/711a92be-b06a-42d0-9084-631bae84d848
http://schema.org/name
land-use
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/711a92be-b06a-42d0-9084-631bae84d848
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Lemma
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/711a92be-b06a-42d0-9084-631bae84d848
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
23.931623931623932
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/711a92be-b06a-42d0-9084-631bae84d848
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
8.4
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/79319343-336d-47a6-b99c-0ceac23c7271
http://schema.org/name
Chemistry
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/79319343-336d-47a6-b99c-0ceac23c7271
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#IPTC
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/79319343-336d-47a6-b99c-0ceac23c7271
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#path
Science and technology/Natural science/Chemistry
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/796f317f-003f-400a-b72f-dd86d4419750
http://schema.org/name
temperature extreme
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/796f317f-003f-400a-b72f-dd86d4419750
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Lemma
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/796f317f-003f-400a-b72f-dd86d4419750
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
11.965811965811966
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/796f317f-003f-400a-b72f-dd86d4419750
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
4.2
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/7a0a8830-5803-4094-8f6b-5f5d6c704ba8
http://schema.org/name
Physical and Technological
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/7a0a8830-5803-4094-8f6b-5f5d6c704ba8
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/7f113446-ac9f-4539-9059-247c2463f6dd
http://schema.org/name
Lisbon
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/7f113446-ac9f-4539-9059-247c2463f6dd
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/7f113446-ac9f-4539-9059-247c2463f6dd
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
10.784313725490199
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/7f113446-ac9f-4539-9059-247c2463f6dd
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
8.8
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8241a33d-d8f2-45dc-a1cb-0c121f1469ab
http://schema.org/name
Geosciences
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8241a33d-d8f2-45dc-a1cb-0c121f1469ab
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#NASA
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8b058ef5-ef05-4f65-a8fb-79c81b7fcaca
http://schema.org/name
Meteorology and climatology
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8b058ef5-ef05-4f65-a8fb-79c81b7fcaca
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#NASA
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8e772eaf-860d-41f7-8cb2-985d64b84d25
http://schema.org/name
between 1951-1980
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8e772eaf-860d-41f7-8cb2-985d64b84d25
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#TimeReference
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8eef95b7-fa78-4302-a564-2b6104ddec70
http://schema.org/name
mean temperature
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8eef95b7-fa78-4302-a564-2b6104ddec70
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8eef95b7-fa78-4302-a564-2b6104ddec70
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
11.151960784313726
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8eef95b7-fa78-4302-a564-2b6104ddec70
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
9.1
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8f7c4d6b-6417-4b1f-abee-65f191caa119
http://schema.org/name
A surface modelling approach for attribution and disentanglement of the effects of global warming from urbanization in temperature extremes: application to Lisbon Abstract
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Sentence
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8f7c4d6b-6417-4b1f-abee-65f191caa119
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
32.89760348583878
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8f7c4d6b-6417-4b1f-abee-65f191caa119
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
15.1
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8fbc7323-701e-47f5-9c9f-5198daf9f423
http://schema.org/name
Engineering
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8fbc7323-701e-47f5-9c9f-5198daf9f423
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#NASA
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/94444f80-96d2-4792-887a-36c6ad395aca
http://schema.org/name
extrication
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/94444f80-96d2-4792-887a-36c6ad395aca
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/94444f80-96d2-4792-887a-36c6ad395aca
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
6.25
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/94444f80-96d2-4792-887a-36c6ad395aca
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
5.1
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/990ef00e-2155-4f81-bf1f-bcbfbc5adadb
http://schema.org/name
climate
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/990ef00e-2155-4f81-bf1f-bcbfbc5adadb
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/990ef00e-2155-4f81-bf1f-bcbfbc5adadb
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
5.759803921568627
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/990ef00e-2155-4f81-bf1f-bcbfbc5adadb
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
4.7
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/9a51fd50-df6e-487e-818d-0333d3cf16fe
http://schema.org/name
Climate change
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#IPTC
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/9a51fd50-df6e-487e-818d-0333d3cf16fe
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#path
Environment/Climate change
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/9bc894e0-a9bd-4f91-b3ec-c5740dcb57bb
http://schema.org/name
Fluid mechanics and thermodynamics
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/9bc894e0-a9bd-4f91-b3ec-c5740dcb57bb
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#NASA
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/9f037f9f-cbff-452f-951b-beb096105848
http://schema.org/name
Extreme heat
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/9f037f9f-cbff-452f-951b-beb096105848
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a094d162-65bf-433e-b8e8-2846dd30e30b
http://schema.org/name
Lisbon
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a094d162-65bf-433e-b8e8-2846dd30e30b
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Lemma
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a094d162-65bf-433e-b8e8-2846dd30e30b
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
18.233618233618234
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a094d162-65bf-433e-b8e8-2846dd30e30b
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
6.4
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a09f9a46-b23a-4817-b475-35adc8a45ec9
http://schema.org/name
land-use
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a09f9a46-b23a-4817-b475-35adc8a45ec9
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a09f9a46-b23a-4817-b475-35adc8a45ec9
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
14.338235294117649
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a09f9a46-b23a-4817-b475-35adc8a45ec9
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
11.7
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http://schema.org/name
summer mean temperature
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Phrase
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/ae2fd1fa-1d05-4b37-ad98-6dc467e3dfb6
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
21.14695340501792
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
5.9
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http://schema.org/name
IPCC
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/b5e57959-6b62-4911-bd4d-5407cf273fbe
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#value
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/4d66385b-ff90-4e0b-8f5e-1a08728dc936
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/b828e0b5-e005-4995-92d1-0dda717bbedb
http://schema.org/name
meteorology
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/b828e0b5-e005-4995-92d1-0dda717bbedb
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/contentdesc#Domain
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/b828e0b5-e005-4995-92d1-0dda717bbedb
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
69.4267515923567
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/b828e0b5-e005-4995-92d1-0dda717bbedb
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
10.9
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/b851ef61-a8fd-473c-a2e3-1312e0ca7aa6
http://schema.org/name
Climate Hazard
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/b851ef61-a8fd-473c-a2e3-1312e0ca7aa6
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#value
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/9f037f9f-cbff-452f-951b-beb096105848
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/bfb82e5c-af91-4eb2-a3a0-0b6be32aee27
http://schema.org/name
Housing and urban planning policy
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#IPTC
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/bfb82e5c-af91-4eb2-a3a0-0b6be32aee27
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#path
Politics/Government policy/Interior policy/Housing and urban planning policy
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/bff14cc1-4e5b-473c-9997-17448f206000
http://schema.org/name
Academic/ Institutional
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c0891e6f-0aa2-47a4-a8cb-e13ad182d652
http://schema.org/name
Portugal
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/contentdesc#Place
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c0891e6f-0aa2-47a4-a8cb-e13ad182d652
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#geonames
https://www.geonames.org/2264397
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c0891e6f-0aa2-47a4-a8cb-e13ad182d652
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#wikidata
https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c19fe6bf-740f-4fe1-b72e-4ff2457b7568
http://schema.org/name
sensitivity
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c19fe6bf-740f-4fe1-b72e-4ff2457b7568
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
8.333333333333334
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
6.8
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http://schema.org/name
fraction
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c3af0309-cb0c-499f-8707-02fb774c2f64
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c3af0309-cb0c-499f-8707-02fb774c2f64
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
6.004901960784315
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
4.9
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http://schema.org/name
Methodology
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c46ff6cd-7706-4090-8c09-c8cfa1a5d76b
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#value
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/dd87fbe2-f6e2-4e09-8db2-1618b502e04d
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c833e169-6fcd-405a-8803-191f8bce95c9
http://schema.org/name
T max
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Phrase
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c833e169-6fcd-405a-8803-191f8bce95c9
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
16.845878136200717
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c833e169-6fcd-405a-8803-191f8bce95c9
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
4.7
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/cc74ee9f-552f-4b66-8acd-95be6b61301e
http://schema.org/name
User Needs (RAST)
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/cc74ee9f-552f-4b66-8acd-95be6b61301e
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/cc74ee9f-552f-4b66-8acd-95be6b61301e
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#value
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/f8cd6cf8-a6e7-4f8a-9444-6fec07cd0c0f
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/d1eb52ff-d731-4644-bdf1-f6d059b49c19
http://schema.org/name
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