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The CP simulations project climate change signals of extreme precipitation intensities of up to 6 or 8.5% increase per K GW depending on the ensemble member. Events with short duration and long RPs are expected to change the most.
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8393
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The magnitude (6 or 8.5% per K) is specific to a COSMO-CLM ensemble over Germany and could only be re-measured elsewhere, not tested. The second sentence proposes a STRUCTURE: intensification is greatest for short durations and long return periods. This thermodynamic hypothesis should hold across domains and models if real, making it reusable and adaptation-relevant, since urban drainage is designed around such events.
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Anne Fouilloux
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Paper annotation: The CP simulations project climate change signals of extreme precipitation intensities of up to 6 or 8.5% increase per K GW depending on the ensemble member. Events with short duration and long RPs are expected to change the most.
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