@prefix this: . @prefix sub: . @prefix np: . @prefix rdf: . @prefix prov: . @prefix npx: . @prefix dc: . @prefix xsd: . sub:Head { this: a np:Nanopublication; np:hasAssertion sub:assertion; np:hasProvenance sub:provenance; np:hasPublicationInfo sub:pubinfo . } sub:assertion { sub:lacertidae-iberia-destine-2020-2039 a , ; "Iberian Lacertidae h_r mechanism replication under Destination Earth Climate DT SSP3-7.0 (2020-2039)"; , , , , , ; """Six explicit deviations from Sinervo 2010, ordered by interpretive significance: (1) Climate forcing. DestinE Climate Digital Twin SSP3-7.0 IFS-NEMO at HEALPix nside=128 (~46 km), 2020-2039. Sinervo used WorldClim 1.4 at 10 arc-minute resolution interpolated between 1975 and 2020 baselines and projected to 2050 / 2080 under IPCC AR3 scenarios (CCCMA / HADCM3 / CSIRO a2a). The DestinE archive's near-term-only horizons mean Sinervo's headline 24 % / 46 % Lacertidae projections for 2050 / 2080 cannot be tested directly — only the mechanism's behaviour at 2020s and 2030s horizons. (2) Taxon. Iberian Lacertidae (47 species across 264 presence cells in the Iberian Peninsula). Sinervo's empirical calibration used 48 Mexican Sceloporus (Phrynosomatidae) at 200 sites with a 1975 baseline census; the global projection used 587 species across 34 families with the Lacertidae row of Table 1 (n=89 records, n_spp=279) as the family parameterisation we inherit. (3) Thermal-physiology priors. Used the family-level Lacertidae Table 1 row (T_b = 35.4 +/- 0.31 °C, h_r threshold = 3.1 h, heliothermic mode) as the baseline. Iberian-specific T_b records from the Spanish herpetological literature (Carretero, Monasterio et al.) were not incorporated in v0.1.0 — explicitly deferred to v0.2.0. A sensitivity branch substitutes Iberolacerta-style cool-adapted T_b = 31 °C to test prior-conditional behaviour. (4) Reproductive-window choice. Default April-May (the conservative single-point estimate for Iberian temperate-zone Lacertidae). Sinervo's Sceloporus calibration used March-April; SOM page 4 specifies \"2 months in the temperate zone\" generically without an Iberian-specific source. Sensitivity branches test May-June (closer to actual Iberian Podarcis / Iberolacerta breeding chronology) and April-June (extended-window dilution). (5) Diurnal-cycle reconstruction. Not applied. SOM Equation S2 is parameterised in daily T_max; DestinE 6-hourly snapshots are aggregated to daily max during the data-clean step, then fed directly to the h_r formula. A sub-daily Polytope-access probe in the data-download step of the cited Research Software returned \"credentials absent\" (recorded in the results-registry artefact); the sinusoidal Tmin-Tmax diurnal-cycle reconstruction scoped as a fallback was not needed because the mechanism is daily-Tmax-driven, not hourly-integration-driven. (6) Spatial substrate. HEALPix-NESTED nside=128 throughout, matching Bombus chain-2 substrate. A substrate-sensitivity diagnostic mirroring Bombus chain 3 runs the same h_r computation at HEALPix nside=64 (downsampled via NESTED bit-shift) under the S3a config — the only sensitivity-matrix config that produces non-zero rates and is therefore the only config where the substrate comparison is non-degenerate. Sinervo's spatial substrate is the WorldClim 10 arc-minute lat-lon grid; this is not a like-for-like substrate comparison but is documented to enable interpretation of the substrate-sensitivity diagnostic across the wider FORRT constellation."""; ; "A four-step Snakemake pipeline (data download → data clean → analysis → figures) implemented in the cited Research Software nanopub. Inputs: (a) Destination Earth Climate DT t2m field, daily-aggregated from 4-times-daily IFS-NEMO snapshots over 2020-2039 SSP3-7.0 at HEALPix nside=128 NESTED ordering (DestinE-native, no re-projection; ~25 GB total, retrieved via Polytope); (b) CRU TS 3.24.01 historical Tmax / Tmin NetCDF (Soroye 2020 Figshare deposit 10.6084/m9.figshare.9956471; reused as a diurnal-cycle baseline); (c) GBIF Lacertidae × Iberia occurrence download (DOI 10.15468/dl.rh4rfn; 136,210 records). The Iberian HEALPix cell mask is derived from the global nside=128 grid by spatial subset to bbox (-10°, 35°, 4°, 44°) yielding 479 cells. Occurrences are assigned to cells via the geographic-HEALPix `lonlat_to_healpix` operation with NESTED ordering. h_r is computed per cell × per day under Sinervo SOM Equation S2 with conditional clamping: `h_r = (0.74 * (T_max − T_b) + 6.1) if T_max > T_b else 0` — the bracket notation `h_r[T_e > T_b_preferred]` in the SOM is a conditional, not a max-zero clamp, so daily T_max ≤ T_b means no refuge needed and h_r = 0. Daily-mean h_r is averaged over the reproductive window per year and compared against the family-calibrated threshold of 3.1 h. A cell-year is flagged as locally extinct when daily-mean h_r > 3.1 h. Per-species local-extinction rate is the fraction of presence cells flagged in each decade (2020-2029, 2030-2039). A six-config sensitivity matrix (2 T_b values × 3 windows) and a substrate-sensitivity diagnostic comparing per-species rankings at HEALPix nside=128 vs nside=64 (downsampled via the NESTED bit-shift parent = pix >> 2) accompany the headline result. Intermediate artefacts are persisted in self-describing formats (NetCDF for arrays, Parquet for tabular). Headline numbers and the full sensitivity matrix are recorded in the cited Research Software's results-registry artefact for downstream consumption by the Outcome nanopub."; "The transferability of the Sinervo 2010 h_r mechanism (cumulative daily hours of activity restriction during the critical reproductive period predicting local extinction in heliothermic lizards) to the Iberian Lacertidae assemblage at near-term horizons reachable under the current Destination Earth Climate Digital Twin archive (2020-2039 under SSP3-7.0). In scope: all 47 Iberian Lacertidae species with at least one georeferenced occurrence record in the GBIF download 10.15468/dl.rh4rfn (Spain, Portugal, Andorra, Gibraltar; year >= 1900; hasCoordinate = TRUE; hasGeospatialIssue = FALSE; basisOfRecord IN HUMAN_OBSERVATION/PRESERVED_SPECIMEN/MACHINE_OBSERVATION); the family-calibrated h_r threshold from Sinervo Table 1 (3.1 h for Lacertidae); two T_b prior choices (family mean 35.4 °C from Table 1, Iberolacerta-style cool-adapted 31 °C); three reproductive-window choices (April-May, May-June, April-June); two HEALPix substrates (nside=128 DestinE-native, nside=64 substrate-sensitivity diagnostic). Out of scope: Sinervo's headline 2050 / 2080 projections (not reachable under current DestinE archive); non-heliothermic Iberian lizard families (Gekkonidae, Anguidae, Scincidae — the basking-window mechanism is calibrated for diurnal heliotherms only); species-specific T_b refinement using Iberian-specific records from Carretero / Monasterio / Spanish herpetological literature (deferred to a v0.2.0 iteration)."; . } sub:provenance { sub:assertion prov:wasAttributedTo . } sub:pubinfo { "Anne Fouilloux" . this: dc:created "2026-05-18T07:21:47.050Z"^^xsd:dateTime; dc:creator ; dc:license ; npx:introduces sub:lacertidae-iberia-destine-2020-2039; npx:wasCreatedAt ; "Iberian Lacertidae h_r mechanism replication under Destination Earth Climate DT SSP3-7.0 (2020-2039)"; . sub:sig npx:hasAlgorithm "RSA"; npx:hasPublicKey "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"; npx:hasSignature "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"; npx:hasSignatureTarget this:; npx:signedBy . }