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      lex: "Soroye et al.\'s (2020) headline claim \342\200\224 that thermal-niche exceedance (TEI) increases extirpation probability for bumble bees \342\200\224 REPLICATES on Iberian Bombus.\n\nThe GLMM coefficient on standardised TEI_delta is positive, large, and credible at both spatial substrates tested in this replication: +0.479 at the original CEA grid (~100 km cells) and +0.454 at HEALPix nside=64 (~92 km cells, 95% HDI [+0.130, +0.751]). Both estimates are within \302\26130 percent of each other, same sign, same order of magnitude as Soroye 2020\'s continental-scale fit. A higher-resolution sibling study at HEALPix nside=128 (weatherxbiodiversity-projection-nside128) finds +0.347, HDI [+0.139, +0.533] \342\200\224 confirming substrate-robustness across three independent pixelisations.\n\nThe Tier-2 SSP3-7.0 projection (DestinE Climate DT, 2030\342\200\2232039 horizon) shows a systematic shift in mean future TEI from ~0.43 historically to ~0.45\342\200\2230.50, indicating that Iberian Bombus species are drifting toward their upper thermal niche edge. None of the studied species hit TEI > 1 (Soroye\'s actual extirpation threshold) at any currently-occupied cell over the next 15 years \342\200\224 the extirpation event Soroye projects is a longer-timescale phenomenon, with 2030\342\200\2232039 being the early-warning period rather than the extirpation period itself.\n\nWhen the per-species ranking is filtered to species with at least 10 occupied cells per substrate AND uses the GLMM main-effects-only \316\267 at projection time (per the substrate-sensitivity diagnostic in the sibling repo weatherxbiodiversity-substrate-sensitivity, \317\201_Spearman = +0.97 between substrates at this filter), the highest-risk Iberian species are B. humilis, B. muscorum, and B. ruderarius \342\200\224 short-tongued grassland specialists already documented in decline elsewhere in Europe. The lowest-risk species are B. terrestris, B. pascuorum, and B. pratorum \342\200\224 the dominant Western Palearctic generalists. The substrate-stable Iberian projection independently identifies the same European high-risk species the long-term monitoring data flag."
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      lex: "TIER 1 \342\200\224 historical fit (1901\342\200\2232014 CRU TS 3.24.01 from Soroye Figshare; GBIF Iberian Bombus occurrences via own download DOI).\n\nGLMM headline coefficient sc_TEI_delta (standardised TEI change between baseline 1901\342\200\2231974 and recent 2000\342\200\2232014):\n  - CEA (~100 km cells):       +0.479    (this run, replicates published v0.2.1)\n  - HEALPix nside=64 (~92 km): +0.454    (95% HDI [+0.130, +0.751])\n  - HEALPix nside=128 (~46 km): +0.347   (95% HDI [+0.139, +0.533]; sibling repo)\n  All three within \302\26130 percent. Sign, magnitude, and HDI agree with Soroye 2020.\n\nCross-fit sanity check: variational-Bayes via statsmodels BinomialBayesMixedGLM agrees with full-posterior NUTS via bambi/PyMC on \316\262_sc_TEI_delta to within VB-underestimation noise (VB posterior SD ~1.4\303\227 smaller than NUTS posterior SD on the same data; report MCMC HDIs as authoritative). See results/headline_statistic_healpix.json.\n\nTIER 2 \342\200\224 SSP3-7.0 projection (DestinE Climate DT, IFS-NEMO standard, native HEALPix nside=128, 2020\342\200\2232029 + 2030\342\200\2232039 horizons).\n\nMean future TEI per species, 2030\342\200\2232039 horizon (substrate-invariant physical metric, Spearman \317\201 between substrates = +0.66 at n\342\211\2451, +0.90 at n\342\211\24510):\n  - Most-shifted species: B. humilis (mean fut TEI ~0.50), B. muscorum (~0.49), B. ruderarius (~0.48)\n  - Least-shifted: B. terrestris (~0.45), B. pascuorum (~0.45), B. pratorum (~0.45)\n\nPer-species community-mean \316\267 under SSP3-7.0 (filtered to species with n_cells\342\211\24510 at both substrates, main-effects-only \316\267 to avoid extrapolation amplification \342\200\224 \317\201_Spearman between substrates = +0.97 mid-term, +0.96 near-term):\n  - Highest projected \316\267 (most at-risk): B. humilis (\316\267 = +1.58), B. muscorum (+1.50), B. ruderarius (+1.54)\n  - Lowest projected \316\267 (most robust): B. terrestris (-2.26), B. pascuorum (-0.69), B. pratorum (-0.56)\n\nFraction of currently-occupied cells where future TEI exceeds 1.0 (Soroye\'s actual extirpation threshold) at 2030\342\200\2232039: 0.00 for every studied species \342\200\224 the extirpation threshold is not yet crossed under SSP3-7.0 over the next 15 years.\n\nFiles: results/headline_statistic.json (CEA), results/headline_statistic_healpix.json (HEALPix nside=64), results/projection_headline.json (Tier-2 per-species rank), results/posterior_bambi.nc + posterior_bambi_healpix.nc (full posteriors); figures figures/main_result_healpix.png + figures/projection_summary.png."
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