Using a spatially explicit method of measuring climatic position and its change over time, we show that risks of bumble bee extirpation rise in areas where local temperatures more frequently exceed species’ historical tolerances, whereas colonization probabilities in other areas rise as climate changes cause conditions to more frequently fall within species’ thermal limits.
Replicating this claim on independent data is the prerequisite for using it: once the mechanism is validated, the same pipeline can be projected onto future climate scenarios to anticipate where pollinator extirpation risk will rise, flag candidate climate refugia for conservation prioritisation, or be extended to other thermally-sensitive insect taxa.
Paper annotation: Using a spatially explicit method of measuring climatic position and its change over time, we show that risks of bumble bee extirpation rise in areas where local temperatures more frequently exceed species’ historical tolerances, whereas colonization probabilities in other areas rise as climate changes cause conditions to more frequently fall within species’ thermal limits.