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Attribution and disentanglement of the effects of global greenhouse gas and land-use changes on temperature extremes in urban areas is a complex and critical issue in the context of regional-to-local climate change mitigation and adaptation. Here, an innovative modelling framework based on a large ensemble of urban climate simulations, using SURFEX (a land-surface model) coupled to TEB (an urban canopy model), forced by E20C (a GCM-based reanalysis), is proposed, and applied to the capital of Portugal—Lisbon. This approach allowed to disentangle the main drivers of change of extreme temperatures in Lisbon, while also improving the simulated summer temperature variability compared to E20C, using station observations as reference. The improvements were physically linked to the strong sensitivity of summer mean and extreme temperatures to local land-use properties. The sensitivity was systematically investigated and robustly demonstrated here, with built-fraction (buildings + roads), albedo and emissivity emerging as key surface parameters. The results revealed a very strong summer temperature increase between 1951–1980 and 1981–2010 periods: 0.90 °C for daily maximum temperature (T
max), and 0.76 °C for daily minimum temperature (T
max). These changes were sensitive to considering different (but constant throughout the simulation) land-uses, varying by about 10% for T
max, and around 17% for T
min. Regarding the temperature extremes (quantified by extreme hot days, EHD, and extreme hot nights, EHN, respectively defined as exceeding the 95th-percentile of T
max and T
min) the changes and their dependencies with the land-use are much more drastic. The isolated effect of changing land-use (keeping the climate forcing unchanged) from rural/natural (low built-fraction) towards dense urbanization (high built-fraction) caused a significant increase in EHN (up to ∼+130 d per 30 years, larger than the effect due to climate forcing alone), and in EHD (∼+60 d per 30 years, which is similar to the effect due to climate forcing alone).
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max), and 0.76 °C for daily minimum temperature (T
max). These changes were sensitive to considering different (but constant throughout the simulation) land-uses, varying by about 10% for T
max, and around 17% for T
min. Regarding the temperature extremes (quantified by extreme hot days, EHD, and extreme hot nights, EHN, respectively defined as exceeding the 95th-percentile of T
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6.4
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http://schema.org/name
Policy Scale
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/349ea0f6-2df0-4b4d-8aaf-af4e45809eae
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#value
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/0528298a-fea6-4f1f-ab1f-ba80ae8fc8ab
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/3b581803-9817-4279-b3d4-079e382b7dab
http://schema.org/name
Lisbon
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/contentdesc#Place
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#geonames
https://www.geonames.org/2267057
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/3b581803-9817-4279-b3d4-079e382b7dab
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#wikidata
https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q597
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/3e366c6f-808a-47e3-8f62-2e28ecceee0f
http://schema.org/name
per 30 years
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#TimeReference
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/41a28c7e-3d9c-4859-8cde-6f3f30310e08
http://schema.org/name
summer mean temperature
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Phrase
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/41a28c7e-3d9c-4859-8cde-6f3f30310e08
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
21.14695340501792
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
5.9
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http://schema.org/name
disentanglement of the effect
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Phrase
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/446fdc21-c9e1-4540-a3e0-4cf2dc247338
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
21.505376344086024
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
6.0
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http://schema.org/name
dependent territory
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/4603490c-42c1-4911-a6e1-216cd198ef6d
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
6.25
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
5.1
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http://schema.org/name
physics
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https://w3id.org/contentdesc#Domain
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/4cab6460-c6c8-465a-b5a5-5b446aaeb111
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
30.573248407643312
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
4.8
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/4dbf4276-eddd-4a08-a969-33817da39bfb
http://schema.org/name
A surface modelling approach for attribution and disentanglement of the effects of global warming from urbanization in temperature extremes: application to Lisbon Abstract
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Sentence
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/4dbf4276-eddd-4a08-a969-33817da39bfb
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
32.89760348583878
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/4dbf4276-eddd-4a08-a969-33817da39bfb
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
15.1
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http://schema.org/name
Engineering (General)
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#NASA
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/5989aa75-bbfd-419e-b8bc-01679d8e8a5b
http://schema.org/name
Extreme heat
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/60b361d0-6357-45e0-9c6a-555db692719d
http://schema.org/name
land-use
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/60b361d0-6357-45e0-9c6a-555db692719d
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
14.338235294117649
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
11.7
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/61a687cc-7d26-4dd0-ac21-992d14df215f
http://schema.org/name
meteorology
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/61a687cc-7d26-4dd0-ac21-992d14df215f
http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/contentdesc#Domain
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/61a687cc-7d26-4dd0-ac21-992d14df215f
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
69.4267515923567
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
10.9
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http://schema.org/name
mean temperature
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Lemma
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/6545a601-1c8c-4c03-a419-4a646691632c
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
18.233618233618234
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
6.4
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/66710026-e104-4adb-b5fb-63332a5b69eb
http://schema.org/name
This approach allowed to disentangle the main drivers of change of extreme temperatures in Lisbon, while also improving the simulated summer temperature variability compared to E20C, using station observations as reference.
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Sentence
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/66710026-e104-4adb-b5fb-63332a5b69eb
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
27.01525054466231
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
12.4
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http://schema.org/name
Knowledge Sector (EEA)
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#value
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c6bfd328-1ec3-4fb8-a4f8-aca5c6e036ca
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/6dfd98ce-50b7-4181-bbba-095d573b71cb
http://schema.org/name
Portugal
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https://w3id.org/contentdesc#Place
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#geonames
https://www.geonames.org/2264397
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#wikidata
https://www.wikidata.org/wiki/Q45
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http://schema.org/name
Environmental Science and Management
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FieldOfResearch
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/76e5d94d-cb3b-48ef-8072-6fa44a8b4758
http://schema.org/name
climate
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/76e5d94d-cb3b-48ef-8072-6fa44a8b4758
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
5.759803921568627
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
4.7
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http://schema.org/name
result
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https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/7ffcf325-543f-40ef-bbbe-c0582b3fa777
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
6.61764705882353
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
5.4
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http://schema.org/name
City in Portugal
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/87a4e06b-0976-4d56-8c4d-086da8a32d84
http://schema.org/name
Statistics
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FieldOfResearch
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8b7a2604-aeca-4cd0-aee4-32e6be55ff6d
http://schema.org/name
The improvements were physically linked to the strong sensitivity of summer mean and extreme temperatures to local land-use properties.
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https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8b7a2604-aeca-4cd0-aee4-32e6be55ff6d
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
40.087145969498906
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
18.4
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http://schema.org/name
Environmental Sciences
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FieldOfResearch
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/8ff5b537-d738-48bd-b63a-42c7e26ba5f8
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Structural/physical: Ecosystem-based
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/949af977-28e4-4c69-988b-4c697ba8328c
http://schema.org/name
Climate-ADAPT Adaptation Sectors
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https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/d8f87437-e27e-4985-8972-310960b7b727
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http://schema.org/name
Geographical Scope
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
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https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/87740188-b46f-4a33-a713-6e7a449add76
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a4c59d03-d694-4fd3-ad6e-3e54e9422587
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Chemistry
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#IPTC
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#path
Science and technology/Natural science/Chemistry
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http://schema.org/name
temperature
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a53ada06-7849-4d7e-a587-f933a9a280ac
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
13.357843137254903
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
10.9
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http://schema.org/name
Academia/ Research Institutions
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a7fdf669-56e5-4575-8df1-179df576c5d5
http://schema.org/name
fraction
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http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/a7fdf669-56e5-4575-8df1-179df576c5d5
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
6.004901960784315
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
4.9
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maximum
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Concept
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/b756df06-3e01-4fd8-8b07-385b5727a2e3
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
5.514705882352941
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
4.5
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http://schema.org/name
land-use property
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#Phrase
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/b877e49b-ef86-4d7c-8dfb-65176d1dc872
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#normScore
27.24014336917563
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#score
7.6
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http://schema.org/name
Climate change
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#IPTC
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c51994e5-11b5-401c-ab26-0b5bcdd33940
https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#path
Environment/Climate change
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http://schema.org/name
Climate change impacts, risks and adaptation
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https://w3id.org/ro/terms/earth-science#FCID
https://w3id.org/ro-id/enrichment/c9b880d7-638f-4daa-89bf-c68d22e24ac2
http://schema.org/name
Climate Hazard
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