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      lex: "This repository extends the canonical Iberian Bombus replication (weatherxbiodiversity-projection at HEALPix nside=64) by refitting Soroye et al.\'s (2020) GLMM at HEALPix nside=128 \342\200\224 the native pixelisation of DestinE Climate DT IFS-NEMO standard, with cells ~46 km across (4\303\227 finer than the canonical sibling).\n\nThe headline GLMM coefficient on standardised TEI_delta at nside=128 is +0.347 (95% HDI [+0.139, +0.533]) \342\200\224 positive, large, credibly above zero. Compared with the canonical CEA fit (+0.479) and the nside=64 sibling (+0.454), all three estimates are within \302\26130 percent, sign-aligned, and order-of-magnitude consistent. Soroye\'s central biological claim \342\200\224 that thermal-niche exceedance increases extirpation probability \342\200\224 replicates at three independent spatial substrates spanning ~46\342\200\223100 km cell resolution.\n\nThe Tier-2 SSP3-7.0 projection (DestinE Climate DT, 2020\342\200\2232029 + 2030\342\200\2232039 horizons) at substrate-matched nside=128 shows the same drift-toward-niche-edge pattern as the nside=64 sibling: mean future TEI rises systematically across most species, but no species crosses TEI > 1 (Soroye\'s actual extirpation threshold) at any currently-occupied cell over the next 15 years. The 2030\342\200\2232039 horizon is the early-warning period under SSP3-7.0, not the extirpation period itself.\n\nPer-species ranking at this substrate is reported via the protocol established in the methodological sibling repo weatherxbiodiversity-substrate-sensitivity: filter to species with at least 10 occupied cells AND use main-effects-only \316\267 at projection time. At this filter, the cross-substrate Spearman correlation with the nside=64 sibling is +0.97 (mid-term horizon) \342\200\224 the per-species ranking IS substrate-stable for species above the cell-count threshold. The substrate-stable highest-risk Iberian species at nside=128 are B. humilis, B. muscorum, B. ruderarius (matching the nside=64 sibling\'s top 3); the lowest-risk are B. terrestris, B. pascuorum, B. pratorum."
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      lex: "TIER 1 \342\200\224 historical fit at HEALPix nside=128 (1901\342\200\2232014 CRU TS 3.24.01 from Soroye Figshare; GBIF Iberian Bombus occurrences via own download DOI; full GLMM refit at native nside=128).\n\nGLMM headline coefficient sc_TEI_delta:\n  - HEALPix nside=128 (~46 km, this run): +0.347   (95% HDI [+0.139, +0.533])\n  - HEALPix nside=64 (~92 km, sibling):   +0.454   (95% HDI [+0.130, +0.751])\n  - CEA (~100 km, canonical):             +0.479\n  All three within \302\26130 percent. Sign, magnitude, and HDI mutually consistent.\n\nVerdict: substrate-robust across the three pixelisations.\n\nCross-fit sanity check at nside=128: variational-Bayes via statsmodels BinomialBayesMixedGLM reports +0.347 \302\261 0.079 (VB SD), consistent with the bambi/PyMC NUTS posterior to within VB-underestimation noise. See results/headline_statistic_healpix.json.\n\nTIER 2 \342\200\224 SSP3-7.0 projection at substrate-matched nside=128 (DestinE Climate DT, IFS-NEMO standard, native HEALPix nside=128, 2020\342\200\2232029 + 2030\342\200\2232039 horizons; no parent-aggregation deviation between fit and projection grids).\n\nMean future TEI per species, 2030\342\200\2232039 horizon (substrate-invariant physical metric, \317\201_Spearman vs nside=64 sibling = +0.66 at n\342\211\2451, +0.90 at n\342\211\24510):\n  - Most-shifted species (top of ranking): B. humilis, B. muscorum, B. ruderarius\n  - Least-shifted (bottom of ranking): B. terrestris, B. pascuorum, B. pratorum\n  - Same top-3 / bottom-3 as the nside=64 sibling\'s substrate-stable ranking.\n\nPer-species community-mean \316\267 under SSP3-7.0 (filtered to n_cells\342\211\24510 at both substrates, main-effects-only \316\267 \342\200\224 \317\201_Spearman vs nside=64 = +0.97 mid-term, +0.96 near-term).\n\nFraction of currently-occupied cells where future TEI exceeds 1.0 at 2030\342\200\2232039: 0.00 for every studied species at nside=128 \342\200\224 same as the nside=64 sibling. The TEI > 1 threshold is not crossed under SSP3-7.0 over the next 15 years on Iberia.\n\nFiles: results/headline_statistic_healpix.json (Tier 1), results/projection_headline.json (Tier 2 per-species rank), results/posterior_bambi_healpix.nc (full nside=128 posterior); figures figures/main_result_healpix.png + figures/projection_summary.png.\n\nCross-substrate diagnostic: see weatherxbiodiversity-substrate-sensitivity (DOI to be minted) for the full five-variant Spearman concordance table, per-species \316\267 decomposition, and recommended reporting protocol.\n\nGitHub repository: https://github.com/annefou/weatherxbiodiversity-projection-nside128"
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