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Model: a single coupled global Earth-system model (IFS-NEMO, one realization) in place\n of a four-member ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs downscaled with COSMO-CLM.\n2. Resolution: about 5 km (HEALPix level 10, ~6.3 km) in place of 2.8 km. Deep convection\n is therefore NOT explicitly resolved here, whereas the original\'s added value came\n precisely from resolving it.\n3. Domain: all of Germany (8,697 cells) in place of the original\'s convection-permitting\n nest over Southern and Central Germany (~411,000 km2).\n4. Scenario: SSP3-7.0 in place of RCP 8.5.\n5. Periods: two 20-year windows (1991-2010, 2030-2049) in place of a transient 1971-2100\n simulation with a 1971-2005 reference and 30-year running windows.\n6. Warming: one interval of 0.93 K of global-mean warming between the windows, in place of\n the original\'s GWL2 and GWL3 (2 K and 3 K). This study therefore cannot test the\n linearity of the response with warming, only the ordering at one interval.\n7. Durations: 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hours in place of 1, 6, 12, 24, 72 hours. There is no 72-hour\n duration here and no 3-hour duration there; the shortest, most convectively driven\n durations the original emphasises are below the archive\'s hourly resolution.\n8. Estimator: a regional index-flood GEV fitted by L-moments to annual maxima, in place of\n a partial-series peak-over-threshold selection with an exponential fit in logarithmic\n space following the German DWA-A 531 guideline.\n9. Return periods: up to 20 years in place of up to 100 years. Twenty years of data cannot\n support a 100-year return level even with pooling.\n10. No sub-hourly correction: the original applies DWA-A 531 factors (1.14, 1.07, 1.04,\n 1.03) for event durations up to 4 hours to compensate for hourly sampling. This study\n applies none, so its short-duration intensities are, if anything, conservative \342\200\224 which\n matters because the short durations are where it finds the largest changes.\n11. No observational comparison: the original evaluates against DWD station data and\n KOSTRA-DWD-2010R. This study compares model windows to each other only." } } } rows { name { value: "hasDiscipline" } } rows { name { value: "Q52139" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_iri { prefix_id: 12 } } } rows { name { value: "hasMethodologyDescription" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 9 } o_literal { lex: "Data: Destination Earth Climate DT, generation 2 \342\200\224 model IFS-NEMO,\nrealization 1, hourly `clte` stream, variable `avg_tprate` (hourly-mean precipitation\nrate, kg m-2 s-1), `levtype=sfc`, `resolution=high`, i.e. the native HEALPix level 10\ngrid (nside 1024, about 6.3 km). Two 20-year windows of equal length: 1991-2010\n(activity `baseline`, experiment `hist`) and 2030-2049 (activity `projections`,\nexperiment SSP3-7.0).\n\nRetrieval: ECMWF Polytope server-side polygon feature extraction over Germany, one\nrequest per calendar month (480 in total, about 23 GB). MARS cannot crop a HEALPix field\nwith a lat/lon box, so server-side extraction is what makes 20 years of hourly level-10\ndata tractable. The domain polygon is committed with the code (Eurostat NUTS 2021\nlevel 0, simplified to 128 vertices) so the study area is fixed. 8,697 cells fall inside\nit.\n\nReduction: rates converted to millimetres per hour (x3600); backward rolling\naccumulations over 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours; the annual maximum of each accumulation per\ncell per calendar year, with each year carrying the tail of the previous one so a\n24-hour total ending on 1 January still sees 31 December.\n\nEstimation: a regional index-flood analysis per (window, duration). Each cell\'s\nannual-maxima series is divided by its own at-site mean, the standardised series are\npooled across all cells, and a single generalised extreme value distribution is fitted to\nthe pool by L-moments (Hosking). Return levels for 2, 5, 10 and 20 years are the pooled\ngrowth factor times each cell\'s index flood. Pooling is what allows a 20-year return\nlevel from a 20-year window, and is the same device the original uses. Uncertainty comes\nfrom resampling CELLS with replacement (n=400), because spatial correlation, not record\nlength, limits the effective independence of the pooled sample.\n\nComparison: the change per matrix cell is the median over grid cells of the per-cell\nratio of return levels between windows, so each cell\'s own climatology cancels.\n\nCoordinate systems: the Climate DT is delivered on HEALPix defined on a sphere. The whole\nanalysis is repeated on HEALPix on the WGS84 ellipsoid, converted with healpix-resample\'s\nconservative (mass-preserving) operator, and both grids are reported.\n\nData attribution (Destination Earth Terms and Conditions v2.0, Art. 3.4): this\ndata is created based on data of the European Union, using the Destination Earth\nPlatform, but has been modified by Anne Fouilloux. The results are a derived\nproduct - aggregation and transformation of Climate DT output - and are not\noriginal DestinE Data. The underlying hourly data is not redistributed.\n\nSoftware: Python; numpy, scipy, xarray, earthkit-data, polytope-client, healpix-geo,\nhealpix-resample. The extreme-value estimator, the coordinate conversion and the verdict\nlogic are unit tested \342\200\224 the GEV against scipy.stats.genextreme, and the verdict against\nmatrices whose answer is known by construction." } } } rows { name { value: "hasScopeDescription" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "Tested: the ORDERING the claim asserts \342\200\224 that extreme precipitation events of\nshort duration and long return period intensify proportionally more than events of long\nduration and short return period. Operationally, whether the largest change in return\nlevel across a duration x return-period matrix falls at the short-duration,\nlong-return-period corner, and whether that corner exceeds the long-duration,\nshort-return-period corner.\n\nNot tested: the original\'s reported magnitude of 6-8.5% per degree of global warming.\nThat figure is a maximum across the members of one convection-permitting ensemble over\none domain; elsewhere it can only be re-measured, not tested. It is recorded in the\nOutcome as evidence alongside this study\'s own per-degree figures, with both definitions\nattached.\n\nAlso not tested: the original\'s comparison against observations (DWD stations,\nKOSTRA-DWD-2010R), its 72-hour duration, its return periods beyond 20 years, and its\nGWL2/GWL3 warming levels." } } } rows { name { value: "targetsClaim" } } rows { name { value: "RAz-DKQA8-UhwW_w9QMtuRAcmimmE-1zxz_dGkI8_3llo" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_iri { prefix_id: 1 } } } rows { name { value: "wasAttributedTo" } } rows { prefix { value: "https://orcid.org/" } } rows { name { value: "0000-0002-1784-2920" } } rows { quad { s_iri { prefix_id: 2 name_id: 4 } p_iri { prefix_id: 5 name_id: 27 } o_iri { prefix_id: 13 } g_iri { prefix_id: 2 name_id: 7 } } } rows { prefix { value: "http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/" } } rows { name { value: "name" } } rows { quad { s_iri { prefix_id: 13 name_id: 28 } p_iri { prefix_id: 14 } o_literal { lex: "Anne Fouilloux" } g_iri { prefix_id: 2 name_id: 9 } } } rows { name { value: "created" } } rows { datatype { value: "http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#dateTime" } } rows { quad { s_iri { prefix_id: 1 name_id: 1 } p_iri { prefix_id: 7 name_id: 30 } o_literal { lex: "2026-09-07T12:44:07.550Z" datatype: 1 } } } rows { name { value: "creator" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_iri { prefix_id: 13 name_id: 28 } } } rows { name { value: "license" } } rows { prefix { value: "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 7 name_id: 32 } o_iri { prefix_id: 15 name_id: 2 } } } rows { name { value: "introduces" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 6 name_id: 33 } o_iri { prefix_id: 2 name_id: 12 } } } rows { name { value: "wasCreatedAt" } } rows { prefix { value: "https://" } } rows { name { value: "platform.sciencelive4all.org" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 6 name_id: 34 } o_iri { prefix_id: 16 } } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 10 name_id: 15 } o_literal { lex: "Duration x return-period scaling of precipitation extremes over Germany in the Destination Earth Climate DT" } } } rows { prefix { id: 8 value: "https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/" } } rows { name { value: "wasCreatedFromTemplate" } } rows { prefix { id: 4 value: "https://w3id.org/np/" } } rows { name { value: "RAuLEjPp-4dTvPwMkfHggTto1CgjIftiGRAgHlyeEonjQ" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 8 name_id: 36 } o_iri { prefix_id: 4 } } } rows { name { value: "sig" } } rows { name { value: "hasAlgorithm" } } rows { quad { s_iri { prefix_id: 2 } p_iri { prefix_id: 6 } o_literal { lex: "RSA" } } } rows { name { value: "hasPublicKey" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "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" } } } rows { name { value: "hasSignature" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_literal { lex: "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" } } } rows { name { value: "hasSignatureTarget" } } rows { quad { p_iri { } o_iri { prefix_id: 1 name_id: 1 } } } rows { name { value: "signedBy" } } rows { quad { p_iri { prefix_id: 6 name_id: 43 } o_iri { prefix_id: 13 name_id: 28 } } }