@prefix this: . @prefix sub: . @prefix np: . @prefix rdf: . @prefix prov: . @prefix npx: . @prefix dc: . @prefix xsd: . sub:Head { this: a np:Nanopublication; np:hasAssertion sub:assertion; np:hasProvenance sub:provenance; np:hasPublicationInfo sub:pubinfo . } sub:assertion { sub:climatedt-germany-duration-rp-return-levels a , ; "Duration x return-period scaling of precipitation extremes over Germany in the Destination Earth Climate DT"; , , ; """Different data and different statistics from the original; both are deliberate, and together they are what make agreement informative rather than circular. 1. Model: a single coupled global Earth-system model (IFS-NEMO, one realization) in place of a four-member ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs downscaled with COSMO-CLM. 2. Resolution: about 5 km (HEALPix level 10, ~6.3 km) in place of 2.8 km. Deep convection is therefore NOT explicitly resolved here, whereas the original's added value came precisely from resolving it. 3. Domain: all of Germany (8,697 cells) in place of the original's convection-permitting nest over Southern and Central Germany (~411,000 km2). 4. Scenario: SSP3-7.0 in place of RCP 8.5. 5. Periods: two 20-year windows (1991-2010, 2030-2049) in place of a transient 1971-2100 simulation with a 1971-2005 reference and 30-year running windows. 6. Warming: one interval of 0.93 K of global-mean warming between the windows, in place of the original's GWL2 and GWL3 (2 K and 3 K). This study therefore cannot test the linearity of the response with warming, only the ordering at one interval. 7. Durations: 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hours in place of 1, 6, 12, 24, 72 hours. There is no 72-hour duration here and no 3-hour duration there; the shortest, most convectively driven durations the original emphasises are below the archive's hourly resolution. 8. Estimator: a regional index-flood GEV fitted by L-moments to annual maxima, in place of a partial-series peak-over-threshold selection with an exponential fit in logarithmic space following the German DWA-A 531 guideline. 9. Return periods: up to 20 years in place of up to 100 years. Twenty years of data cannot support a 100-year return level even with pooling. 10. No sub-hourly correction: the original applies DWA-A 531 factors (1.14, 1.07, 1.04, 1.03) for event durations up to 4 hours to compensate for hourly sampling. This study applies none, so its short-duration intensities are, if anything, conservative — which matters because the short durations are where it finds the largest changes. 11. No observational comparison: the original evaluates against DWD station data and KOSTRA-DWD-2010R. This study compares model windows to each other only."""; ; """Data: Destination Earth Climate DT, generation 2 — model IFS-NEMO, realization 1, hourly `clte` stream, variable `avg_tprate` (hourly-mean precipitation rate, kg m-2 s-1), `levtype=sfc`, `resolution=high`, i.e. the native HEALPix level 10 grid (nside 1024, about 6.3 km). Two 20-year windows of equal length: 1991-2010 (activity `baseline`, experiment `hist`) and 2030-2049 (activity `projections`, experiment SSP3-7.0). Retrieval: ECMWF Polytope server-side polygon feature extraction over Germany, one request per calendar month (480 in total, about 23 GB). MARS cannot crop a HEALPix field with a lat/lon box, so server-side extraction is what makes 20 years of hourly level-10 data tractable. The domain polygon is committed with the code (Eurostat NUTS 2021 level 0, simplified to 128 vertices) so the study area is fixed. 8,697 cells fall inside it. Reduction: rates converted to millimetres per hour (x3600); backward rolling accumulations over 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours; the annual maximum of each accumulation per cell per calendar year, with each year carrying the tail of the previous one so a 24-hour total ending on 1 January still sees 31 December. Estimation: a regional index-flood analysis per (window, duration). Each cell's annual-maxima series is divided by its own at-site mean, the standardised series are pooled across all cells, and a single generalised extreme value distribution is fitted to the pool by L-moments (Hosking). Return levels for 2, 5, 10 and 20 years are the pooled growth factor times each cell's index flood. Pooling is what allows a 20-year return level from a 20-year window, and is the same device the original uses. Uncertainty comes from resampling CELLS with replacement (n=400), because spatial correlation, not record length, limits the effective independence of the pooled sample. Comparison: the change per matrix cell is the median over grid cells of the per-cell ratio of return levels between windows, so each cell's own climatology cancels. Coordinate systems: the Climate DT is delivered on HEALPix defined on a sphere. The whole analysis is repeated on HEALPix on the WGS84 ellipsoid, converted with healpix-resample's conservative (mass-preserving) operator, and both grids are reported. Data attribution (Destination Earth Terms and Conditions v2.0, Art. 3.4): this data is created based on data of the European Union, using the Destination Earth Platform, but has been modified by Anne Fouilloux. The results are a derived product - aggregation and transformation of Climate DT output - and are not original DestinE Data. The underlying hourly data is not redistributed. Software: Python; numpy, scipy, xarray, earthkit-data, polytope-client, healpix-geo, healpix-resample. The extreme-value estimator, the coordinate conversion and the verdict logic are unit tested — the GEV against scipy.stats.genextreme, and the verdict against matrices whose answer is known by construction."""; """Tested: the ORDERING the claim asserts — that extreme precipitation events of short duration and long return period intensify proportionally more than events of long duration and short return period. Operationally, whether the largest change in return level across a duration x return-period matrix falls at the short-duration, long-return-period corner, and whether that corner exceeds the long-duration, short-return-period corner. Not tested: the original's reported magnitude of 6-8.5% per degree of global warming. That figure is a maximum across the members of one convection-permitting ensemble over one domain; elsewhere it can only be re-measured, not tested. It is recorded in the Outcome as evidence alongside this study's own per-degree figures, with both definitions attached. Also not tested: the original's comparison against observations (DWD stations, KOSTRA-DWD-2010R), its 72-hour duration, its return periods beyond 20 years, and its GWL2/GWL3 warming levels."""; . } sub:provenance { sub:assertion prov:wasAttributedTo . } sub:pubinfo { "Anne Fouilloux" . this: dc:created "2026-09-07T12:44:07.550Z"^^xsd:dateTime; dc:creator ; dc:license ; npx:introduces sub:climatedt-germany-duration-rp-return-levels; npx:wasCreatedAt ; "Duration x return-period scaling of precipitation extremes over Germany in the Destination Earth Climate DT"; . sub:sig npx:hasAlgorithm "RSA"; npx:hasPublicKey "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"; npx:hasSignature "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"; npx:hasSignatureTarget this:; npx:signedBy . }