Bibliography on sea-ice forecasting and navigability in the Arctic
assessments at high temporal resolution are still very limited. To bridge this gap, daily sea ice concentration and thickness from CMIP6 projections are applied to evaluate the future potential of Arctic shipping under multiple climate scenarios. The September navigable area will continue to increase through the 2050s for open-water (OW) ships and the 2040s for Polar Class 6 (PC6) vessels across all scenarios. Quasi-equilibrium states will then ensue for both OW and PC6 ships under SSP245 and SSP585. The sailing time will be shortened, especially for OW ships, while the navigable days for both types of vessels will increase dramatically. PC6 ships will be able to sail the Arctic shipping routes year-round starting in the 2070s when the decadal-averaged global mean surface temperature anomaly hits approximately +3.6°C (under SSP585) compared to pre-industrial times (1850–1900).
Abstract The rapid Arctic summer sea ice reduction in the last decade has lead to debates in the maritime industries on the possibility of an increase in cargo transportation in the region. Average sailing times on the North Sea Route along the Siberian Coast have fallen from 20 days in the 1990s to 11 days in 2012–2013, attributed to easing sea ice conditions along the Siberian coast. However, the economic risk of exploiting the Arctic shipping routes is substantial. Here a detailed high-resolution projection of ocean and sea ice to the end of the 21st century forced with the RCP8.5 IPCC emission scenario is used to examine navigability of the Arctic sea routes. In summer, opening of large areas of the Arctic Ocean previously covered by pack ice to the wind and surface waves leads to Arctic pack ice cover evolving into the Marginal Ice Zone. The emerging state of the Arctic Ocean features more fragmented thinner sea ice, stronger winds, ocean currents and waves. By the mid 21st century, summer season sailing times along the route via the North Pole are estimated to be 13–17 days, which could make this route as fast as the North Sea Route.
On the future navigability of Arctic sea routes: High-resolution projections of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice
As the climate warms and sea ice melts, trans-Arctic shipping routes are becoming easier to navigate, a prospect that is enticing to freight companies. These routes can cut up to 9,000 kilometers off a one-way trip between East Asia and Europe compared with shipping through the Suez or Panama Canals—shortcuts that clip roughly 40 percent off the voyage. According to a new study, the reality of routine trans-Arctic trade could come sooner than expected. Using satellite data on daily sea ice between 1979 and 2019, the researchers found that the safe navigation season for open-water vessels in the Arctic—trips that could be embarked upon without the help of icebreakers—is already significantly longer than climate models anticipated. With a few exceptions, most shippers avoid the hostile Arctic Ocean. But according to Kuishuang Feng, an ecological economist at the University of Maryland who worked on the new study, observational data shows that rather than being commercially navigable by the middle of the century, as many climate models predict, several trans-Arctic routes are already navigable for large chunks of the year—and they have been for a while. The team found that open-water ships could have been traveling through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago along the fabled Northwest Passage for more than two months of the year during the 2010s. Captains wanting to travel between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans along the Norwegian and Russian coasts could have done so for even l
Arctic Shipping Routes Are Expanding Faster than Predicted
Abstract paper-1: The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming. It is projected to continue and will have great impacts on navigation. Perspectives on the changes in sea ice and navigability are crucial to the circulation pattern and future of the Arctic. In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model. The sea ice extent shows a high possibility of decreasing along SSP5-8.5 under current emissions and climate change. The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point. Sea ice thickness is expected to decrease and transit in certain parts, declining by −0.22 m per decade after September 2060. Both the sea ice concentration and volume will thoroughly decline at decreasing decadal rates, with a greater decrease in volume in March than in September. Open water ships will be able to cross the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage between August and October during the period from 2045 to 2055, with a maximum navigable percentage in September. The time for Polar Class 6 (PC6) ships will shift to October–December during the period from 2021 to 2030, with a maximum navigable percentage in October. In addition, the central passage will be open for PC6 ships between September and October during 2021–2030.
Iaquinta, Jean. "Bibliography on sea-ice forecasting and navigability in the Arctic." ROHub. Dec 03 ,2022. https://w3id.org/ro-id/714c9088-075f-43fb-94e0-b397eb195343.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration
physical geography and environmental geoscience
In this in vestigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters wereevaluated by the multi model from the Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase , and Arctic navigability was as sessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs)and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation acces sibility model.
The distributions of the linear trend of sea ice extent, concen tration, and thickness were explored in three stages ( , , and ). In addition, the changesin sea ice volume and age were analyzed.
The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extentwill increase in March but decrease in September until ,when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and thesea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point.
Economy, business and finance/Economic sector/Transport/Waterway and maritime transport
Politics/Government/Defence/Military equipment
The decadal rate of decreasing sea ice extent will increase in March but decrease in September until 2060, when the oldest ice will have completely disappeared and the sea ice will reach an irreversible tipping point.
Ice charts are produced by sea ice analysts following international standards (WMO No. , a) including additional sea ice parameters and the presence of icebergs, that are not always clearly discernible from satellites.
Abstract paper-1: The retreat of sea ice has been found to be very significant in the Arctic under global warming.
In this investigation, the decadal changes in sea ice parameters were evaluated by the multi-model from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6, and Arctic navigability was assessed under two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation accessibility model.
Environment/Climate change/Global warming
Antarctica is a largely inhospitable and inaccessible continent that plays a key role in regulating the climate through ocean currents, winds, icebergs drift, and sea ice concentration and thickness.
Economy, business and finance/Economic sector/Computing and information technology/Satellite technology
KEYWORDS ice chart, Antarctica, satellite imagery, icebergs, sea ice, GIS frontiersin.org
Discussion and concluding remarks The navigable window for OW ships and PC6 ships along the NSR were investigated in our previous work (Chen et al., 2020), but it is insufficient to evaluate Arctic navigability by a single climate model, even with a high resolution. This study serves as a reference for future changes in sea ice and navigability in the Arctic, including NSR, NWP, and central passage. However, the uncertainty of the models might have affected the results and their reliability in this research. Approximated physical processes and unreal parameters in models are inevitable problems in the geosciences. Differences still existed even when the models were filtered by comparing the historical simulations with the observations of sea ice extent. The abnormal decrease in navigable area at high latitudes (80–90∘ N) in September might be an example. This is against conventional wisdom, but it could be true. The uncertainty of the models is expected to decrease in future prospective research. Different ice types do make a big difference to ship navigability. For example, for the same sea ice thickness (SIT) ⋅ sea ice concentration (SIC) (e.g., SIT ⋅ SIC = 0.3), pack ice (say SIT = 0.6 m thick and SIC = 50 %) has a high degree of freedom that level ice (say SIT = 0.3 m and SIC = 100 %) does not have. Thus, ships are easier to navigate in broken ice floes (Huang et al., 2020b). ATAM is unable to clearly distinguish ice types at first, and this might be a future direction.
Perspectives on future sea ice and navigability in the Arctic
Abstract: Antarctica is a largely inhospitable and inaccessible continent that plays a key role in regulating the climate through ocean currents, winds, icebergs drift, and sea-ice concentration and thickness. The study area of ​​this work corresponds to the Weddell Sea, Bellingshausen Sea and the South Atlantic Ocean. These areas are relevant because of supply operations to Antarctic stations and scientific and tourist activities. The Antarctic Peninsula is the most visited region of the continent for tourist and research vessels and requires special efforts in the development and dissemination of updated ice information for Safety of Navigation. For this purpose, it is critical to have information that discriminates the origin of the ice from land and open water, sea-ice concentration, and stage of development. The high recurrence of cloud cover over the Antarctic Peninsula during the summer hinders the operational use of visible/infra red satellite imagery, therefore access to Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) sensors is considered to be a high priority. Between 2018 and 2020, with the launch of the SAOCOM (Satélite Argentino de Observación Con Microondas) constellation, Argentina has evidenced an increase in the availability of SAR images for sea-ice operations. This paper presents the current state of routine production of operational ice charts at the Argentine Naval Hydrographic Service for mariners in the vicinity of the Antarctic Peninsula and South Atlantic Ocean and d
Southern Ocean ice charts at the Argentine Naval Hydrographic Service and their impact on safety of navigation
The ablation of Arctic sea ice makes seasonal navigation possible in the Arctic region, which accounted for the apparent influence of sea ice concentration in the navigation of the Arctic route. This paper uses Arctic sea ice concentration daily data from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019. We used a sea ice concentration threshold value of 40% to define the time window for navigating through the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP). In addition, for the year when the navigation time of the NEP is relatively abnormal, we combined with wind field, temperature, temperature anomaly, sea ice age and sea ice movement data to analyze the sea ice conditions of the NEP and obtain the main factors affecting the navigation of the NEP. The results reveal the following: (1) The sea ice concentration of the NEP varies greatly seasonally. The best month for navigation is September. The opening time of the NEP varies from late July to early September, the end of navigation is concentrated in mid-October, and the navigation time is basically maintained at more than 30 days. (2) The NEP was not navigable in 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004. The main factors are the high amount of multi-year ice, low temperature and the wind field blowing towards the Vilkitsky Strait and sea ice movement. The navigation time in 2012, 2015 and 2019 was longer, and the driving factors were the high temperature, weak wind and low amount of one-year ice. The navigation time in 2003, 2007 and 2013 was shorter, and the influe
Analysis of Sea Ice Timing and Navigability along the Arctic Northeast Passage from 2000 to 2019