https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/Head https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/assertion https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/provenance https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/pubinfo https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/assertion https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/FORRT-Replication-Study https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/Replication-Study https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label TEI mechanism — HEALPix nside=128 substrate extension on Iberian Bombus (full GLMM refit at native DestinE Climate DT pixelisation) https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension http://www.w3.org/2004/02/skos/core#related http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q125928 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension http://www.w3.org/2004/02/skos/core#related http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q2922293 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension http://www.w3.org/2004/02/skos/core#related http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q5629401 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasDeviationDescription 1. Pixelisation. Soroye 2020 fit at the CEA grid (~100 km, equal-area cylindrical). This Study fits at HEALPix-NESTED nside=128 on the WGS84 ellipsoid (~46 km). Cell area is ~4× smaller than Soroye's; cell shape and topology differ. This is the SAME deviation kind as the canonical nside=64 sibling, just at a finer resolution. 2. Region. Iberian peninsula only — same as the canonical sibling. 3. Inference engine. Two independent Python implementations (statsmodels VB, bambi/PyMC NUTS) — same as the canonical sibling. 4. Prior choices. Bambi defaults (Half-StudentT on group SDs) rather than Soroye's MCMCglmm informative inverse-Wishart — same deviation as the canonical sibling. 5. Climate inputs. Soroye's bundled CRU TS 3.24.01 from his Figshare deposit, used unchanged — NOT a deviation. 6. Tier 2 projection grid alignment. Unlike the canonical nside=64 sibling, this Study fits AND projects at the same native HEALPix nside=128 substrate — no parent-cell aggregation between fit and projection grids. This eliminates one source of cross-substrate aggregation noise but introduces a finer-grained per-cell extrapolation tail (more cells lie far outside the training distribution per species). https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasDiscipline http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q1886501 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasMethodologyDescription METHOD The methodology mirrors the canonical nside=64 sibling exactly except for the spatial substrate. Cell coverage and per-species niche limits are computed on HEALPix-NESTED nside=128 cells of the WGS84 ellipsoid (using the healpix-geo Python library); per-species niche limits and the GLMM are refit at this substrate. GLMM specification (identical to Soroye 2020 and to the canonical sibling): extinction ~ continent + sc_sampling + sc_TEI_bs + sc_TEI_delta + sc_TEI_bs:sc_TEI_delta + sc_PEI_bs + sc_PEI_delta + sc_PEI_bs:sc_PEI_delta + sc_TEI_bs:sc_PEI_bs + sc_TEI_delta:sc_PEI_delta + (1|species) Inference: variational-Bayes via statsmodels.BinomialBayesMixedGLM (fast first pass) and full-posterior NUTS via bambi/PyMC, 4 chains × 2000 samples (authoritative HDIs). Tier 2 — SSP3-7.0 future projection. DestinE Climate DT IFS-NEMO standard SSP3-7.0 GRIB files retrieved via polytope on LUMI for the 2020–2029 and 2030–2039 horizons, decoded with eccodes (Python API, NESTED-aware), subset to pre-computed Iberian HEALPix nside=128 cells. The future-period TEI_delta and PEI_delta are computed on the SAME substrate the GLMM was fit on (no cross-substrate aggregation step). Per-species ranking is reported following the protocol established in the methodological sibling chain (n_cells ≥ 10, main-effects-only η at projection time). https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasScopeDescription SCOPE: the GLMM coefficient on standardised TEI_delta at HEALPix nside=128 (the native pixelisation of DestinE Climate DT IFS-NEMO standard), Iberian Bombus only. IN SCOPE - Soroye 2020's GLMM specification (identical to the canonical nside=64 sibling). - Soroye 2020's CRU TS 3.24.01 climate inputs (identical, kept unchanged). - HEALPix-NESTED nside=128 on the WGS84 ellipsoid (~46 km cells; the native DestinE Climate DT pixelisation). - Tier 1 historical fit on the 1901–1974 baseline period and 2000–2014 recent period. - Tier 2 SSP3-7.0 future projection at substrate-matched nside=128 (no parent-aggregation deviation between fit and projection grids). OUT OF SCOPE for this Replication Study (handled by separate chains) - The canonical CEA + nside=64 substrate-comparison at coarser resolution — see weatherxbiodiversity-projection. - Cross-substrate methodological diagnostic — see weatherxbiodiversity-substrate-sensitivity. - Bombus species outside the Iberian peninsula. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/targetsClaim https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAh7NYjme8dajwxnoBfbOjsd1L76LQfN-pMEajIwiRDJE/soroye2020-tei-delta-positive-iberia-nside64 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/provenance https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/assertion http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/pubinfo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920 http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name Anne Fouilloux https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 http://purl.org/dc/terms/created 2026-05-11T19:28:01.754Z https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 http://purl.org/dc/terms/license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 http://purl.org/nanopub/x/introduces https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-healpix-nside128-substrate-extension https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 http://purl.org/nanopub/x/wasCreatedAt https://platform.sciencelive4all.org https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label TEI mechanism — HEALPix nside=128 substrate extension on Iberian Bombus (full GLMM refit at native DestinE Climate DT pixelisation) https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/wasCreatedFromTemplate https://w3id.org/np/RAuLEjPp-4dTvPwMkfHggTto1CgjIftiGRAgHlyeEonjQ https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasAlgorithm RSA https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasPublicKey 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 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignature 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 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignatureTarget https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAsGeFqqv4iQqrFNyjQwpSqKQYYk8JqGEjpCCJf1FtAM4/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/signedBy https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920