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      lex: "From results/summary.csv (read directly, not from memory). Tag selection: recovered PAT tags with full time-series (PAT_RECOVERY==YES & DATA_TS==YES). Of 7 candidates, 5 entered the HMM; 2 were excluded honestly \342\200\224 02_01 (PAT2 records only internal/body-heat temperature, no external ambient sensor, so the emission is invalid) and 06_10 (its basin-scale GLORYS box repeatedly failed to download). Four of the analysed tags have a co-deployed SPOT tag (Argos referee); one (07_01) is PAT-only and compared to GPE3 only.\n\nReferee tags \342\200\224 median great-circle error to Argos (same fixes for both methods):\n  tag    n_argos  pangeo-fish vs Argos   GPE3 vs Argos    fitted sigma (rad)\n  07_05    68       300.3 km               94.5 km          0.0070  (interior)\n  08_01    75       354.5 km               30.4 km          0.0937  (at bound)\n  08_02    62       201.8 km               41.3 km          0.0937  (at bound)\n  08_09    62       251.1 km               67.0 km          0.0937  (at bound)\n  ----------------------------------------------------------------------------\n  aggregate (median of per-tag medians): pangeo-fish 275.7 km | GPE3 54.2 km\n\nPAT-only (no referee; NOT an accuracy validation): 07_01 pangeo-fish-vs-GPE3 median offset 169.9 km.\n\npangeo-fish-vs-GPE3 track-agreement medians on the referee tags: 258.2 / 273.1 / 178.6 / 184.6 km (07_05/08_01/08_02/08_09).\n\nKey diagnostic: the fitted Brownian \317\203 saturated at its upper bound (0.0937 of max 0.0942 rad) for 3 of the 4 referee tags \342\200\224 a signature that the temperature observations were weakly informative, so the model defaulted to maximum diffusion. Only 07_05 fit an interior \317\203. State space: HEALPix NESTED level 9 (~6.4 km) for every tag (recorded per-tag in summary.csv). Pipeline executed end-to-end via the repo notebooks; numbers verified 2026-06-05.\n\nGitHub repository: https://github.com/annefou/white-shark-geolocation-replication"
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      lex: "Caveats that bound this conclusion:\n\n1. **Validity of temperature-matching.** White sharks are regionally endothermic, but the PAT *external* sensor records ambient water temperature, so matching tag temperature-at-depth against GLORYS thetao is physically valid. (Checked deliberately \342\200\224 not a confound.)\n\n2. **Diagnosed cause of the accuracy gap \342\200\224 weak thermal constraint, not a code error.** For 3 of the 4 referee tags the fitted Brownian \317\203 saturated at its upper bound (\342\211\2100.0937 of max 0.0942 rad). \317\203 pinned at the ceiling is diagnostic that the temperature observations carried little positional information, so the posterior defaulted to maximum diffusion. Temperature fields are spatially smooth (many locations share near-identical profiles), giving a flat emission likelihood \342\200\224 the opposite of GPE3\'s light-based longitude, which is clock-sharp.\n\n3. **Field resolution and habitat bound the achievable skill.** GLORYS12V1 (~8 km, daily-mean) smooths the mesoscale fronts/eddies that carry positional information; the ~0.1 \302\260C tag sensor is *not* the limit, the field is. Movement is basin-scale through the relatively homogeneous offshore California Current, where the vertical thermal gradient \342\200\224 the thing that makes temperature-at-depth informative \342\200\224 is often weak (vs pangeo-fish\'s coastal sea-bass demo). Leading mechanistic hypothesis: **skill correlates with thermocline strength**.\n\n4. **The referee.** GPE3 is itself an estimate, not truth \342\200\224 only the Argos SPOT fixes serve as the accuracy referee, and only where deployments overlap SPOT coverage (the 3\342\200\2234 co-deployed tags).\n\n5. **This is a MINIMAL pangeo-fish configuration \342\200\224 a baseline, not the method\'s ceiling.** The result tests pangeo-fish with a single emission variable (temperature-at-depth), only the two release/pop-up endpoints as anchors, and the GLORYS field \342\200\224 with Argos deliberately held out as the independent referee. pangeo-fish itself supports much more, and none of it was exploited here: (a) **richer multi-signal emissions** \342\200\224 open light-level geolocation (TwGeos/FLightR/SGAT/probGLS), satellite-SST matching (OSTIA/MUR/GHRSST), joint temperature\342\200\223salinity matching (GLORYS `so`), and bathymetry as a hard exclusion (GEBCO); (b) **known reference-point anchoring along the track, not just endpoints** \342\200\224 including **acoustic-receiver detections** (the MBA project carried acoustic tags on ~21 sharks), which pin position to within ~1 km at known times. So the \342\211\210276 km figure is a floor for this bare configuration, NOT a verdict on pangeo-fish as a method. Caveats on the acoustic route specifically: the detection records are likely **not** in the PAT/SPOT archive used here (they live in a separate acoustic-telemetry network \342\200\224 ATN/OTN / California arrays \342\200\224 and must be joined on shark ID); receivers are dense in the coastal nursery but absent offshore, so acoustics tighten the coastal portions, not the offshore basin-scale excursions where temperature struggles most; and any detection used as an anchor must NOT also be used as a referee (avoid the circularity we avoided with GPE3).\n\n6. **Field/resolution future work.** A natural follow-up that could narrow the gap (a candidate `extends`/`qualifies` chain step): re-run the same HMM with a **finer, eddy-resolving, data-assimilative ocean field** \342\200\224 a regional California Current reanalysis (CCS-ROMS, ~1\342\200\2234 km, which also covers the older 2001\342\200\2232009 deployments) or a Destination Earth ocean digital twin for recent-enough tags. Falsifiable prediction: \317\203 comes off its bound and median error drops. Caveats: (i) resolution only helps where thermal structure physically exists but is unresolved, not where the water is genuinely homogeneous; (ii) the field must be high-res AND correctly phased (assimilative) \342\200\224 a sharp-but-misplaced eddy field could add error, so forecast-style twins are not automatically better than GLORYS; (iii) most km-scale products do not reach back to the 2001\342\200\2232009 windows, so a regional reanalysis may beat a global twin for these specific tags. None of the field improvements remove pangeo-fish\'s single-signal disadvantage vs GPE3\'s light+SST+endpoint fusion \342\200\224 which is what caveat 5\'s multi-signal fusion addresses."
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