https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/Head https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasAssertion https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/assertion https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasProvenance https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/provenance https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#hasPublicationInfo https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/pubinfo https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type http://www.nanopub.org/nschema#Nanopublication https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/assertion https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/FORRT-Replication-Study https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 http://www.w3.org/1999/02/22-rdf-syntax-ns#type https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/Replication-Study https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label TEI mechanism replicated on Iberian Bombus — CEA grid + HEALPix nside=64 substrate extension https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 http://www.w3.org/2004/02/skos/core#related http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q125928 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 http://www.w3.org/2004/02/skos/core#related http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q12837 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 http://www.w3.org/2004/02/skos/core#related http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q2922293 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 http://www.w3.org/2004/02/skos/core#related http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q5629401 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasDeviationDescription 1. Pixelisation. Soroye 2020 fit at the CEA grid (~100 km, equal-area cylindrical projection at the equator). This Study additionally fits at HEALPix-NESTED nside=64 (~92 km cells on the WGS84 ellipsoid). Cell area is comparable (within ~10%); cell shape and topology differ. 2. Region. Soroye 2020 fit on North America + whole Europe (all Western Palearctic Bombus). This Study fits on Iberian peninsula only. Iberia is a subset of Soroye's European fitting domain; the same GLMM specification applies. 3. Inference engine. Soroye 2020 used MCMCglmm (R). This Study uses two independent Python implementations (statsmodels variational-Bayes for the fast first pass; bambi/PyMC NUTS for the authoritative posterior HDIs reported in the Outcome). Both target the same Bayesian posterior. 4. Prior choices. Soroye 2020's MCMCglmm priors (default informative inverse-Wishart on variance components) are not exactly reproducible across to bambi (Half-StudentT default on group SDs). This is the largest non-trivial methodological deviation; it should not affect the headline coefficient sign or order of magnitude (verified: it does not). The full prior table is in notebooks/03h_analysis_healpix.py. 5. Climate inputs. Soroye 2020's CRU TS 3.24.01 from his Figshare deposit is used unchanged — NOT a deviation, this is the SAME climate dataset. 6. Sampling-effort proxy. Same as Soroye (cells_per_decade × records_per_cell from the cleaned occurrence table) — NOT a deviation. https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasDiscipline http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q641498 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasMethodologyDescription METHOD Tier 1 — historical fit. (1) Climate inputs. Soroye's bundled CRU TS 3.24.01 NetCDFs (mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation, 1901–2014, 0.5° lat-lon grid) are downloaded from Soroye's Figshare deposit and used unchanged. No substitution with cdsapi or other reanalysis sources at fit time — by design, to keep the climate forcing identical to the original. (2) Occurrence inputs. GBIF Iberian Bombus occurrences are issued via own-DOI download (cited in the Outcome step 05 "evidence" field). Filtering follows Soroye's species list (genus Bombus, valid taxonomy, occurrences geo-referenced to the Iberian peninsula bounding box). (3) GLMM specification. Replicates Soroye's exact formula: extinction ~ continent + sc_sampling + sc_TEI_bs + sc_TEI_delta + sc_TEI_bs:sc_TEI_delta + sc_PEI_bs + sc_PEI_delta + sc_PEI_bs:sc_PEI_delta + sc_TEI_bs:sc_PEI_bs + sc_TEI_delta:sc_PEI_delta + (1|species) where TEI = (T_obs − T_min_spp) / (T_max_spp − T_min_spp), PEI is the analogous precipitation index, and sc_ is within-substrate z-scoring. (4) Two spatial substrates. Pass 1 (CEA): cell coverage and per-species niche limits computed on Soroye's original CEA grid (~100 km cells); GLMM fit on this grid. Pass 2 (HEALPix nside=64): cell coverage re-computed on HEALPix-NESTED nside=64 cells of the WGS84 ellipsoid (using the healpix-geo Python library); per-species niche limits and the GLMM are refit at this substrate. (5) Inference. Two independent fitting strategies on the same Pass-2 design matrix: (a) variational-Bayes mean-field via statsmodels.BinomialBayesMixedGLM (fast first pass); (b) full-posterior NUTS via bambi/PyMC, 4 chains × 2000 samples (authoritative HDIs). Tier 2 — SSP3-7.0 future projection — runs on the DestinE Jupyter platform and is part of this same chain's Outcome (step 05), not a separate Study. Briefly: DestinE Climate DT IFS-NEMO standard SSP3-7.0 GRIB files are retrieved via polytope on LUMI for the 2020–2029 and 2030–2039 horizons, decoded with eccodes (Python API, NESTED-aware), subset to pre-computed Iberian HEALPix cells, aggregated to monthly means matching the CRU TS units, and used to compute future TEI_delta and PEI_delta per species per cell. Per-species ranking is reported following the protocol established in the methodological sibling chain. Code: notebooks/01_data_download.py (CRU TS + GBIF), notebooks/02_data_clean.py (CEA Pass 1 cleaning), notebooks/02h_data_clean_healpix.py (HEALPix Pass 2 cleaning), notebooks/03_analysis.py (CEA fit), notebooks/03h_analysis_healpix.py (HEALPix fit), notebooks/04_figures.py + 04h_figures_healpix.py (figures). https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasScopeDescription SCOPE: the GLMM coefficient on standardised TEI_delta (Soroye et al. 2020's "climatic position index change" between baseline 1901–1974 and recent 2000–2014), restricted to Bombus species observed on the Iberian peninsula in GBIF. IN SCOPE - Soroye 2020's GLMM specification: extinction ~ continent + sc_sampling + sc_TEI_bs + sc_TEI_delta + sc_PEI_bs + sc_PEI_delta + (TEI:PEI interactions) + (1|species). - Soroye 2020's CRU TS 3.24.01 climate inputs (Figshare bundle, identical NetCDFs). - Two spatial substrates: original CEA grid (~100 km cells, Pass 1) and HEALPix-NESTED nside=64 on the WGS84 ellipsoid (~92 km cells, Pass 2). - Tier 1 historical fit on the 1901–1974 baseline period and 2000–2014 recent period. OUT OF SCOPE for this Replication Study (handled by separate chains) - Higher-resolution substrates (HEALPix nside=128) — see weatherxbiodiversity-projection-nside128. - Cross-substrate methodological diagnostic (substrate-coupling at projection time) — see weatherxbiodiversity-substrate-sensitivity. - Tier 2 SSP3-7.0 future projection — reported as a separate Outcome contribution within this same chain (see step 05), not as a separate Study. - Bombus species outside the Iberian peninsula (Soroye's original ranges in North America + whole-Europe). https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/targetsClaim https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAh7NYjme8dajwxnoBfbOjsd1L76LQfN-pMEajIwiRDJE/soroye2020-tei-delta-positive-iberia-nside64 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/provenance https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/assertion http://www.w3.org/ns/prov#wasAttributedTo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/pubinfo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920 http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name Anne Fouilloux https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY http://purl.org/dc/terms/created 2026-05-11T18:27:02.619Z https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY http://purl.org/dc/terms/creator https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY http://purl.org/dc/terms/license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY http://purl.org/nanopub/x/introduces https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/soroye2020-iberian-bombus-cea-and-healpix-nside64 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY http://purl.org/nanopub/x/wasCreatedAt https://platform.sciencelive4all.org https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label TEI mechanism replicated on Iberian Bombus — CEA grid + HEALPix nside=64 substrate extension https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY https://w3id.org/np/o/ntemplate/wasCreatedFromTemplate https://w3id.org/np/RAuLEjPp-4dTvPwMkfHggTto1CgjIftiGRAgHlyeEonjQ https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasAlgorithm RSA https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasPublicKey MIICIjANBgkqhkiG9w0BAQEFAAOCAg8AMIICCgKCAgEAoDcOiD+jen8awiJ6DB2ewDw66PeG64hODmgNFwy7GrwQui4HKnHdvxd++1UhTgiOfycxyxBb7sXPSikLw/1TsSyPsEl0P3/+600szxpTGgLNzW+bZ2DVP3d8ERMV1aWpH0ci3B/5vmK+vXQZ4uCoq57NE0MiFg5c13Gy0gd6n7wZYEhYM4AjWSLL0QS/HY+TFZMYL9bCFeATennGrlB2UEjRlw21UB2Ah16ZZ6hxQlfctFJZE7TGnBJPB3ttTjfcOfamhjZVwQ0yV9mv7x6PGiSmkzpJTVLjn8hagoKT05YUwVQArFb+w7f6sXqvvljMigjd/Rbqgbye/lLUAZLfJSnFM58TubfpEJvXV4zNMDEoT3VQ7dokgoLgMrmjZCKATtQ7gomocoTJ1NhN2esRNtGzWaS2obL/mueUQlMlavssZnqL8WICkdAuDlwDVNbsbwEWKQ50kiPdAdduSigifxA4CM7TgvnxqZVoAResEGP6UhTTem3T4CsbEas1Caj9wa7M1jPjACu5LF5BwcVns3ZQHWLipjRjD+9/ur3G8QtuxbNhmXlDYQ6tXxB1lK+Oz7O519b3bA15ilzFl0SdvMBGTe46xaQ9DsJT18THKnPbUhNMy0dH0VtzpB+EEaXZ25Fp9VHMEUqo1lLS9e89eO3efiqkESKQ7wmB+/DlIRcCAwEAAQ== https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignature 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 https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/hasSignatureTarget https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAybO8c8qx0p5bz9lMhMxzNsXhp0aXyd8GHnGC3i53vQY/sig http://purl.org/nanopub/x/signedBy https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920