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      lex: "Hotspot misidentification (symmetric set non-overlap of top-5 % richest cells) was computed at six HEALPix-NESTED resolutions for two GBIF\nbasis-of-record strategies on Iberian birds, year-split 2000 (atlas = post-2000 occurrences; rangemap-equivalent = pre-2000 species convex\nhulls).\n\nHeadline numbers at Nside 256 (\342\211\210 25 km, the 0.25\302\260 equivalent of Hurlbert & Jetz Table 2):\n- museum strategy (PRESERVED_SPECIMEN + MACHINE_OBSERVATION):  89.9 % misidentified  (Wilcoxon signed-rank p < 10\342\201\273\302\271\342\201\260\342\201\260).\n- allbor strategy (+ HUMAN_OBSERVATION, citizen science included):  97.8 % misidentified  (Wilcoxon signed-rank p < 10\342\201\273\302\271\342\201\260\342\201\260).\n- Hurlbert & Jetz 2007 Australia: 47.8 %.\n- Hurlbert & Jetz 2007 Southern Africa: 68.6 %.\n\nDirection-of-effect agreement is monotone across all six Nsides for both strategies, replicating the central scale-dependence finding.\n\nGold-standard rangemap test at Nside 256 (matched species subset, 260 Iberian breeding species also present in our post-2000 GBIF set): EU Birds Directive Article 12 expert polygons (2013\342\200\2232018, 10 \303\227 10 km grid cells, EEA CC-BY 4.0) yield misidentification of 94.9 % for museum (n = 213 matched species) and 85.2 % for allbor (n = 226).\nThe expert rangemap does NOT close the gap with Hurlbert & Jetz\'s 47.8\342\200\22368.6 % range \342\200\224 refuting the hypothesis that hull-as-rangemap substitution is the dominant cause of the magnitude offset.\n\nMechanism decomposition at Nside 256:\n- Atlas-vs-observer-effort per-cell correlation (log-log Pearson r at Nside 256): r = 0.48 (museum), r = 0.96 (allbor); the all-observations atlas is essentially a log-linear function of per-cell record count, so for allbor the \"atlas hotspots\" predominantly index citizen-science observer effort (cities, accessible protected areas) rather than biological richness. This is the dominant residual: under any rangemap substitute including the gold-standard Article 12 expert polygons, the atlas top-5 % set consistently disagrees with the rangemap top-5 % set, because the atlas top-5 % cells are observer hotspots while the rangemap top-5 % cells are biological hotspots.\n- Top-K sweep: at top-25 % (versus Hurlbert & Jetz\'s top-5 %), misidentification drops to 74.2 % (museum) and 71.6 % (allbor), inside the Hurlbert & Jetz Australia\342\200\223southern-Africa range.\n- Concave-hull substitute (shapely 2.0, ratio = 0.3) closes 6.3 percentage points for museum (89.9 \342\206\222 83.0) and 13.5 percentage points for allbor (97.8 \342\206\222 83.8) on the full-species set, confirming that convex hulls over-predict presence \342\200\224 a secondary contributor relative to the observer-effort dominant.\n\nLand-mask sensitivity (peninsula-only cells via NaturalEarth 10m) shifts the Nside 256 number by \342\211\244 4.3 percentage points and is therefore not a material confounder. Per-species temporal hull drift (Jaccard distance between pre-2000 and post-2000 convex hulls) is large for museum (median 0.81) and moderate for allbor (median 0.21); this does not materially shift the aggregate top-5 % misidentification at Nside 256 (\316\224 < 1 percentage point), because the pre-2000 and post-2000 hulls, though individually differently shaped, are similarly inflated in total\narea.\n\nGitHub repository: https://github.com/annefou/sdm-scale-replication"
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