https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAazzwF05nb7FbNBMNBoNLGRygKzqD-CMFgo8fA4zbS6s
.trig | .trig.txt | .jelly | .jelly.txt | .jsonld | .jsonld.txt | .nq | .nq.txt | .xml | .xml.txt
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sub:Head {
this: a np:Nanopublication;
np:hasAssertion sub:assertion;
np:hasProvenance sub:provenance;
np:hasPublicationInfo sub:pubinfo .
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sub:assertion {
sub:climatedt-germany-duration-rp-return-levels a <https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/FORRT-Replication-Study>,
<https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/Replication-Study>;
<http://www.w3.org/2000/01/rdf-schema#label> "Duration x return-period scaling of precipitation extremes over Germany in the Destination Earth Climate DT";
<http://www.w3.org/2004/02/skos/core#related> <http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q111089542>,
<http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q125928>, <http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q7942>;
<https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasDeviationDescription> """Different data and different statistics from the original; both are
deliberate, and together they are what make agreement informative rather than circular.
1. Model: a single coupled global Earth-system model (IFS-NEMO, one realization) in place
of a four-member ensemble of CMIP5 GCMs downscaled with COSMO-CLM.
2. Resolution: about 5 km (HEALPix level 10, ~6.3 km) in place of 2.8 km. Deep convection
is therefore NOT explicitly resolved here, whereas the original's added value came
precisely from resolving it.
3. Domain: all of Germany (8,697 cells) in place of the original's convection-permitting
nest over Southern and Central Germany (~411,000 km2).
4. Scenario: SSP3-7.0 in place of RCP 8.5.
5. Periods: two 20-year windows (1991-2010, 2030-2049) in place of a transient 1971-2100
simulation with a 1971-2005 reference and 30-year running windows.
6. Warming: one interval of 0.93 K of global-mean warming between the windows, in place of
the original's GWL2 and GWL3 (2 K and 3 K). This study therefore cannot test the
linearity of the response with warming, only the ordering at one interval.
7. Durations: 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hours in place of 1, 6, 12, 24, 72 hours. There is no 72-hour
duration here and no 3-hour duration there; the shortest, most convectively driven
durations the original emphasises are below the archive's hourly resolution.
8. Estimator: a regional index-flood GEV fitted by L-moments to annual maxima, in place of
a partial-series peak-over-threshold selection with an exponential fit in logarithmic
space following the German DWA-A 531 guideline.
9. Return periods: up to 20 years in place of up to 100 years. Twenty years of data cannot
support a 100-year return level even with pooling.
10. No sub-hourly correction: the original applies DWA-A 531 factors (1.14, 1.07, 1.04,
1.03) for event durations up to 4 hours to compensate for hourly sampling. This study
applies none, so its short-duration intensities are, if anything, conservative — which
matters because the short durations are where it finds the largest changes.
11. No observational comparison: the original evaluates against DWD station data and
KOSTRA-DWD-2010R. This study compares model windows to each other only.""";
<https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasDiscipline> <http://www.wikidata.org/entity/Q52139>;
<https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasMethodologyDescription> """Data: Destination Earth Climate DT, generation 2 — model IFS-NEMO,
realization 1, hourly `clte` stream, variable `avg_tprate` (hourly-mean precipitation
rate, kg m-2 s-1), `levtype=sfc`, `resolution=high`, i.e. the native HEALPix level 10
grid (nside 1024, about 6.3 km). Two 20-year windows of equal length: 1991-2010
(activity `baseline`, experiment `hist`) and 2030-2049 (activity `projections`,
experiment SSP3-7.0).
Retrieval: ECMWF Polytope server-side polygon feature extraction over Germany, one
request per calendar month (480 in total, about 23 GB). MARS cannot crop a HEALPix field
with a lat/lon box, so server-side extraction is what makes 20 years of hourly level-10
data tractable. The domain polygon is committed with the code (Eurostat NUTS 2021
level 0, simplified to 128 vertices) so the study area is fixed. 8,697 cells fall inside
it.
Reduction: rates converted to millimetres per hour (x3600); backward rolling
accumulations over 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours; the annual maximum of each accumulation per
cell per calendar year, with each year carrying the tail of the previous one so a
24-hour total ending on 1 January still sees 31 December.
Estimation: a regional index-flood analysis per (window, duration). Each cell's
annual-maxima series is divided by its own at-site mean, the standardised series are
pooled across all cells, and a single generalised extreme value distribution is fitted to
the pool by L-moments (Hosking). Return levels for 2, 5, 10 and 20 years are the pooled
growth factor times each cell's index flood. Pooling is what allows a 20-year return
level from a 20-year window, and is the same device the original uses. Uncertainty comes
from resampling CELLS with replacement (n=400), because spatial correlation, not record
length, limits the effective independence of the pooled sample.
Comparison: the change per matrix cell is the median over grid cells of the per-cell
ratio of return levels between windows, so each cell's own climatology cancels.
Coordinate systems: the Climate DT is delivered on HEALPix defined on a sphere. The whole
analysis is repeated on HEALPix on the WGS84 ellipsoid, converted with healpix-resample's
conservative (mass-preserving) operator, and both grids are reported.
Data attribution (Destination Earth Terms and Conditions v2.0, Art. 3.4): this
data is created based on data of the European Union, using the Destination Earth
Platform, but has been modified by Anne Fouilloux. The results are a derived
product - aggregation and transformation of Climate DT output - and are not
original DestinE Data. The underlying hourly data is not redistributed.
Software: Python; numpy, scipy, xarray, earthkit-data, polytope-client, healpix-geo,
healpix-resample. The extreme-value estimator, the coordinate conversion and the verdict
logic are unit tested — the GEV against scipy.stats.genextreme, and the verdict against
matrices whose answer is known by construction.""";
<https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/hasScopeDescription> """Tested: the ORDERING the claim asserts — that extreme precipitation events of
short duration and long return period intensify proportionally more than events of long
duration and short return period. Operationally, whether the largest change in return
level across a duration x return-period matrix falls at the short-duration,
long-return-period corner, and whether that corner exceeds the long-duration,
short-return-period corner.
Not tested: the original's reported magnitude of 6-8.5% per degree of global warming.
That figure is a maximum across the members of one convection-permitting ensemble over
one domain; elsewhere it can only be re-measured, not tested. It is recorded in the
Outcome as evidence alongside this study's own per-degree figures, with both definitions
attached.
Also not tested: the original's comparison against observations (DWD stations,
KOSTRA-DWD-2010R), its 72-hour duration, its return periods beyond 20 years, and its
GWL2/GWL3 warming levels.""";
<https://w3id.org/sciencelive/o/terms/targetsClaim> <https://w3id.org/sciencelive/np/RAz-DKQA8-UhwW_w9QMtuRAcmimmE-1zxz_dGkI8_3llo> .
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<https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1784-2920> <http://xmlns.com/foaf/0.1/name> "Anne Fouilloux" .
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dc:license <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/>;
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